For the brief time following the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump began polling above Hillary Clinton. The Democrat National Convention gave Hillary a similar boost, completely eroding Trump’s lead. However, in the Real Clear Politics average (which averages together dozens of national polls) Trump is close to polling above Hillary once again.
The odds of a Trump Presidency are also on the rise, according to the statistics blog Five Thirty Eight. Hillary Clinton’s of winning have dropped from 70% to under 60% in just days following her 9/11 fainting episode.
Five Thirty Eight says that if the polls look like this in another week, the Democrats should be panicking. They explain:
This potentially ignores a more important question, however. Sure, Clinton might lead by only a percentage point or two right now — with a similarly perilous advantage in the Electoral College. But is that necessarily the best prediction for how things will turn out in November?
Our various models differ on this question. Polls-only assumes that there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the outcome. But it also mostly assumes1 that the current condition of the race — Clinton ahead by around 2 points — is a statistically unbiased prediction of the Nov. 8 outcome. In other words, it assumes that Clinton is as likely to continue losing ground as opposed to regaining ground from this point forward.
And that’s just based off of the polls! Remember that in America it’s not the popular vote that counts, it’s the electoral college. And that’s where Trump is also on track to pull ahead.
Michigan, Colorado and New Hampshire were moved from“likely blue state” to “toss up” this week.
Donald Trump is catching Hillary Clinton in electoral college votes. Reuters reported:
An election analysis conducted in the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project shows that the race has tightened considerably over the past few weeks, with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump projected to win Florida, an essential battleground state, if the election were held today.
The project, which is based on a weekly tracking poll of more than 15,000 Americans, shows that the 2016 presidential race could end in a photo finish on Nov. 8, with the major-party candidates running nearly even in the Electoral College, the body that ultimately selects the president.
It’s not over until it’s over. The media may think that Hillary has this election in the bag, but she’s in for a surprise this November – share this post on Facebook and Twitter.