How can we predict the outcome of today’s election?
Polls seem to be the go-to for the media and average person – and by in large, those have shown Trump and Hillary polling within the margin of error. Alternatively, some look to the betting odds to see who has an edge. In theory, those putting their money where their mouth is tend to be more accurate. Plus, insider trading is legal in election betting.
The betting odds show a high chance of a Hillary victory, but let’s not pretend that they’re perfect. The day of the BREXIT vote, the betting odds gave over a 90% chance that the UK would remain in the European Union. As we know, that didn’t happen.
Here’s an interesting new method to predict the outcome: looking at social media. As we know from the size of crowds that Trump and Hillary attract, Trump certainly generates more enthusiasm than crooked Hillary. What could that mean? That even if Hillary has more supporters, they aren’t as motivated to head out to the polls as Trump supporters. Plus, many of them may not bother if they bought the media narrative that a Hillary victory is inevitable anyway.
This map showing Facebook activity for each candidate in the 2016 presidential election should absolutely terrify Hillary Clinton.
Not only is Donald Trump far more active in terms of overall discussions, but the overall amount of positive posts regarding each candidate is completely lopsided.
While Donald Trump receives almost 50-50 coverage in terms of positive and negative posts directed at the candidate, Hillary Clinton receives almost entirely negative posts, even from some of the folks who claim they’re supporters, however are still troubled by the Wikileaks releases as well as the Project Veritas videos.
So according to this map, Hillary Clinton doesn’t stand a chance, she’s even predicted to lose New York which many people have been saying behind the scenes.
A bit optimistic? Perhaps. However, famed statistician Nate Silver (found of the popular statistics blog Five Thirty Eight) believes that if Hillary wins, it could come down to a single State.
Even liberals are panicking. Let’s give them a run for their money today.
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H/T World Politics