A political science professor out of Stony Brook College in New York says he has a statistical model that has accurately predicted results of every election over the last century, and he was shocked by what he discovered.
Hint: It’s good news for those hoping America sees a President Trump come 2017.
Via the Statesman:
A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.
Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.
Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula.
Want to know how good Norpoth’s statistical model is? In 2012, he and his colleagues used the same model to predict that President Obama would defeat Mitt Romney comfortably … and they called it nearly 300 days in advance.
Check out this report from last month which discusses the possibility of Trump defeating Clinton:
Comment: What do you think of the professor’s prediction? Is Trump a virtual guarantee as President? Share your thoughts below.
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