With Texas Senator Ted Cruz poised to have a strong showing in tomorrow’s Wisconsin primary, a new poll from IBD/TIPP shows Donald Trump’s once-mammoth lead nationally shrinking to just 7 points over Cruz, 38%-31%.
While upcoming primaries in New York and Pennsylvania could be helpful to Trump’s nomination chances, the new poll should cause some concern to Trump after a rough week in which the GOP frontrunner stumbled over the issue of abortion.
Trump has 38 percent support from Republicans nationwide, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) with 31 percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is third with 20 percent support.
The IBD/TIPP poll is noteworthy for two reasons. First, it was the most accurate pollster in the 2012 Presidential race. Its poll, also, was the only national poll conducted after a series of unforced errors related to perceptions of the Trump campaign’s tone, temperament and certain policy positions.
In the IBD/TIPP poll from March, Trump held an 11-point lead over Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) with Cruz a very close third. Kasich, at the time, was far back in the pack with just 7 percent support. Since then, Trump has gained just 7 points in support, growing from 31 to 38 percent. Cruz has gained 11 points, from 20 to 31 percent, while Kasich has gained 13, rising from 7 to 20.
The overwhelming support of candidates who dropped out of the race in March went to Cruz and Kasich, not Trump.
Indeed, when first and second choices are combined, Cruz leads Trump by a wide margin, 63-49. In March, Trump led Cruz as the 1st or 2nd choice, 42-39.
Trump dominates the Republican field in the Northeast, where primary elections will be concentrated in April. In that region he leads second-place Kasich by 32 points. Trump has a healthy 7 point lead in the South, which has finished its primary voting. Trump and Cruz are essentially tied in the Midwest, while Cruz leads in the West by 8 points.
Among men, Trump leads Cruz by 11 points. His lead among women is just 3 points, however, within the polls’ margin of error. Interestingly, though, Trump leads among single women by 15 points, while losing married women. His overall support among women has dropped from March, though.
Cruz dominates among younger voters. He leads Trump by 20 points among voters 25 and younger. Trump, however, has a 17 point lead with voters older than 65.
These, and other, demographic breakdowns are largely consistent with polling and exit polling throughout the primary season. Trump has, however, lost overall support among women and has shed considerable support among younger voters. His drops in support in these two demographics is noteworthy as it has come as three major candidates have left the race.
This latest poll highlights what remains a central obstacle to Trump’s campaign. He still hasn’t consolidated support in the way frontrunners usually have by this point. He has solidified a strong plurality of support, but isn’t yet showing signs of moving it to an outright majority.
Here’s a report on the upcoming Wisconsin primary:
Do you think Trump will win Wisconsin or is it too late for him? Does this new national poll concern you about Trump’s chances to win the nomination? Share your thoughts below!
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