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Here’s What the Media Won’t Tell You About Trump’s Chance of Winning

Trump polls

Listen to the media and you’ll think it’s a done┬ádeal that Hillary Clinton will be our next President, but is it inevitable?

When the media pushes a narrative, there’s usually a reason behind it. Emails released by WikiLeaks confirm that the Clinton campaign used bogus polling figures as a strategy to try to discourage voters leaning Trump from even bothering to visit the polls on election day.

Most of the polls are extremely poorly designed. Consider a poll that NBC commissioned, showing Hillary polling 11 points above Trump nationally. It sounded ridiculous – because it is. The poll was stacked with liberal respondents, with 43% of them leaning left, and only 36% leaning right. That’s a 7 percentage point gap in ideology alone. Demographically, the poll was disproportionately stacked with minorities, who disproportionately plan to vote for Hillary, and underrepresented white voters, who are predominantly voting for Trump. Oh – and the polling firm that conducted the poll had received $225,500 in September alone from Hillary’s Priorities USA Super-PAC. That conflict of interest somehow didn’t make it into NBC’s article.

And yet the media had no trouble circulating a sensationalist poll that flawed.

As a result of them, the narrative of Trump’s inevitable defeat persist. Here’s just one CNN headline:

Trump polls

Well, here’s what the experts over at CNN were saying about Trump’s chance at becoming the Republican nominee in July of last year.

Trump polls

Well, they were dead wrong at that.

Now, it was July and Trump had recently launched his campaign, so he did face more competitors than you and I can remember. Every candidate would’ve had an equally small chance of winning. To give a sports example, Leicester City won the English Premier League despite having been a 5,000-to-1 underdog at the start of the season, according to U.K. bookmakers.

What did the analysts say were Trump’s odds of securing the Republican nomination later into the campaign, after he picked off most of the competition? As of November 2015, Nate Silver’s statistics blog FiveThirtyEight predicted Trump’s odds of winning the Republican nomination as “substantially below 20%.”

Wrong again.

Whatever the media tells you Trump’s chances are, the real odds will increase substantially if people get out and vote this November. Let’s all give the media a surprise. Get the message out – share this post on Facebook and Twitter!

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